Uhlalutyo lobonelelo kunye neMfuno kwiMarike yePolyethylene: Ukunyuka koxinzelelo lobonelelo kwiQ1 lika-2025
Intshayelelo
Njengoko uDonald Trump ephinde wanyulwa njengoMongameli wase-United States, imbonakalo yemarike yokungenisa impahla ye-polyethylene (PE) yaseTshayina ibangele inkxalabo ephawulekayo. Ezi nkxalabo zivela ikakhulu ekunyukeni kwengxabano yorhwebo phakathi kwe-US ne-China ngexesha likaTrump elidlulileyo, nto leyo eyachaphazela kakhulu iirhafu kwiimveliso zeekhemikhali nezeplastiki kwaye yabangela utshintsho kwikhonkco lokubonelela.
Impembelelo yeengxabano zorhwebo
Imigaqo-nkqubo yorhwebo kaTrump inokubangela uxinzelelo olukhulu kubudlelwane borhwebo phakathi kwe-US ne-China. Iziphakamiso ezifana nerhafu epheleleyo ye-10% phantse kuzo zonke izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle e-US, irhafu efanayo ye-60% kwiimpahla zaseTshayina, kunye neminye imisebenzi ejoliswe kuyo inokuba yingozi. Ukuba iphunyeziwe, la manyathelo anokonakalisa abathengi kunye namashishini ase-US, acinezele uqoqosho, kwaye asongele imisebenzi. Kwi-China, le migaqo-nkqubo inokukhokelela ekwehleni okukhulu kwenani lokuthumela ngaphandle e-US.
Ukukhula koMbane kunye neMarike yokuNgenisa ngaphandle
Nangona kukho iingxabano zorhwebo, amandla e-polyethylene eTshayina ayaqhubeka nokukhula. Ngexesha lowama-2023-2024, ukungeniswa kwe-PE eTshayina kuphinde kwanda xa kuthelekiswa nowama-2022. Ngo-Okthobha ka-2024, iTshayina yayingenise malunga ne-12 lezigidi zeetoni ze-PE, kwaye ukungeniswa okupheleleyo konyaka kulindeleke ukuba kudlule amanqanaba ka-2023. Olu hlobo lwemeko lubangelwa kukulibaziseka ekuqalisweni kwamandla amatsha asekhaya. Amandla emveliso ye-PE eTshayina ngo-2024 aqikelelwa kwi-31.8 yezigidi zeetoni, nto leyo ebonisa ukunyuka okuncinci kwe-2% ngonyaka.
Xa sijonge phambili ku-2025, kulindeleke ukuba iTshayina ibone ukunyuka kwamandla emveliso entsha ye-PE, kunye nokukhula okulindelweyo ukuba kudlule i-19%. Abavelisi bagxile kwiimarike ezikhethekileyo, kubandakanya i-metallocene polyethylene (mPE), i-polyolefin elastomers (POE), kunye ne-ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE). Oku kuya kuphucula ngakumbi ukuzimela kweTshayina kwi-PE kwaye kuqinise ukhuphiswano kwimarike yokungenisa impahla kwamanye amazwe.
Impembelelo yoNikezelo lwaseMelika
I-United States isaqhubeka nokuba yenye yemithombo ephambili yokungenisa iimveliso ze-PE eTshayina, ithatha malunga ne-18% yazo zonke iimveliso ezithunyelwayo phakathi kukaJanuwari no-Okthobha ka-2024. Nangona iimveliso ze-PE zizonke zaseTshayina ziyancipha, isabelo se-US sinyukile ngenxa yokukhula kwamandla ayo emveliso kunye nenzuzo yeendleko ezivela kwi-feedstocks ezisekelwe kwi-ethane.
I-US ikwindawo enokhuphiswano olukhulu kwi-curve yeendleko ze-PE zehlabathi. Ngowama-2025, amandla emveliso ye-US PE kulindeleke ukuba afikelele kwi-25.5 yezigidi zeetoni, kunye nezinga lokukhula lonyaka elihlanganisiweyo (CAGR) le-4.8% ukusuka ngo-2018 ukuya ku-2025. Oku kwenza i-US ibe yinkampani enkulu yokuthengisa i-PE kwihlabathi liphela, yandisa ngakumbi isabelo sayo semarike eTshayina.
Isiphelo
Kwikota yoku-1 ka-2025, njengoko izakhiwo ezisandul’ ukuqaliswa zisanda imveliso kwaye izityalo ezazingasebenzi ngaphambili ziqalisa ukusebenza, uxinzelelo lobonelelo lwe-PE kulindeleke ukuba lunyuke, nto leyo ekhokelela ekulinganisweni kobonelelo-imfuno kunye noxinzelelo oluphantsi kumaxabiso athile. Iingxabano phakathi kobonelelo-imfuno zisenokufikelela kwincopho ngoJanuwari, nto leyo ekhokelela ekuncipheni kwenzuzo yemveliso. NgoFebruwari nangoMatshi, ukuvalwa kwezakhiwo okwethutyana kulindeleke ukuba kwande, nto leyo enika isiqabu kuxinzelelo lobonelelo. Nangona kunjalo, imakethi iyonke iya kuhlala ikwimeko yobonelelo olugqithisileyo.
(Umxholo nemifanekiso ifunyenwe kwi-intanethi.)