Tātaritanga o te Tuku me te Tono o te Mākete Polyethylene: Te Pikinga o te Pēhanga Tuku i te Hauwhā Tuatahi o te tau 2025
Kupu Whakataki
I te pōtitanga anō o Donald Trump hei Perehitini o te Hononga o Amerika, kua ara ake ngā āwangawanga nui mō te mākete kawemai polyethylene (PE) o Haina. Ko te take matua o ēnei āwangawanga ko te pikinga ake o ngā taupatupatu hokohoko o Amerika-Haina i te wā o mua o Trump, ā, i pā nui ki ngā taripa mō ngā hua matū me te kirihou, ā, i puta ai ngā whakarerekētanga ki te mekameka tuku.
Ngā Pānga o ngā Tautohe Tauhokohoko
Tērā pea ka whakararuraru ake ngā kaupapa here hokohoko a Trump i ngā hononga hokohoko o Amerika-Haina. Ko ngā whakaaro pēnei i te 10% te utu whānui mō te nuinga o ngā kawemai o Amerika, he 60% te utu ōrite mō ngā taonga Hainamana, me ētahi atu utu kua whakaritea, ka kino pea. Mēnā ka whakatinanahia, ka pā kino pea ēnei mahi ki ngā kaihoko me ngā pakihi o Amerika, ka pehi i te ōhanga, ā, ka whakawehi i ngā mahi. Mō Haina, ka ārahi pea ēnei kaupapa here ki te hekenga nui o ngā rahinga kaweake ki Amerika.
Te Tipu Pūmanawa me te Mākete Kawemai
Ahakoa ngā tautohe tauhokohoko, kei te tipu tonu te kaha o te polyethylene o Haina. I waenganui i te tau 2023-2024, kua piki ake te kawemai PE kupenga a Haina ki te whakataurite ki te tau 2022. I te marama o Oketopa 2024, kua kawemai a Haina i te tata ki te 12 miriona tana o te PE, ā, e matapaetia ana ka hipa ake ngā kawemai katoa mō te tau i ngā taumata o te tau 2023. Ko tētahi o ngā take o tēnei ia ko ngā whakaroa i te whakatinanatanga o ngā kaha hou o te whare. Ko te kaha whakaputa PE a Haina i te tau 2024 e kiia ana he 31.8 miriona tana, he pikinga iti noa iho o te 2% i ia tau.
I te tirohanga whakamua ki te tau 2025, e matapaetia ana ka kite a Haina i te pikinga ake o te kaha whakaputa PE hou, me te tipu e matapaetia ana ka neke atu i te 19%. Kei te arotahi ngā kaihanga ki ngā mākete motuhake, tae atu ki te metallocene polyethylene (mPE), ngā polyolefin elastomers (POE), me te ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE). Tērā pea ka whakarei ake tēnei i te mana motuhake o Haina ki te PE, ā, ka kaha ake te whakataetae i te mākete kawemai.
Te Awe o te Tukunga o Amerika
Ko te Hononga o Amerika tonu tētahi o ngā pūtake matua o ngā kawemai PE a Haina, e 18% pea o ngā kawemai katoa i waenga i a Hānuere me Oketopa 2024. Ahakoa kei te heke te nuinga o ngā kawemai PE a Haina, kua piki ake te wāhi o te US nā te tipu haere o tōna kaha whakaputa me te painga utu mai i ngā rauemi whāngai e ahu mai ana i te ethane.
He tino whakataetae te tūranga o te US i roto i te pihi utu PE o te ao. I te tau 2025, e matapaetia ana ka tata te kaha whakaputa PE o te US ki te 25.5 miriona tana, me te tere tipu ā-tau (CAGR) o te 4.8% mai i te tau 2018 ki te 2025. Nā tēnei ka waiho te US hei kaihokohoko PE nui o te ao, ka whakawhānui ake i tana wahanga mākete ki Haina.
Whakamutunga
I te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2025, i te mea ka whakanui ake ngā whare hou kua whakatūria, ā, ka tīmata anō ngā mahi a ngā tipu kua mutu te mahi, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake te pēhanga o te tuku PE, ka hua ake he taurite ngoikore o te tuku me te tono, ā, ka heke te pēhanga ki ngā utu tū. Tērā pea ka piki ake ngā pakanga tuku me te tono i te marama o Hānuere, ka heke ai ngā hua whakaputa. I te marama o Pēpuere me Maehe, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake ngā kati tipu mō te wā poto, ka āwhina i te pēhanga o te tuku. Heoi, ka noho tonu te mākete whānui ki te nui rawa o te tuku.
(Ngā ihirangi me ngā whakaahua i tangohia mai i te ipurangi.)