Ukuhlaziywa Kokunikezwa Kwemakethe Ye-Polyethylene kanye Nesidingo: Ukunyuka Kwengcindezi Yokunikezwa Kwempahla ku-Q1 2025
Isingeniso
Njengoba uDonald Trump ephinde wakhethwa njengoMongameli wase-United States, umbono wemakethe yokungenisa impahla ye-polyethylene (PE) yaseShayina ubangele ukukhathazeka okuphawulekayo. Lokhu kukhathazeka kuvela kakhulu ekukhuleni kokungezwani kwezohwebo phakathi kwe-US ne-China ngesikhathi sikaTrump sangaphambilini, okwathinta kakhulu intela yemikhiqizo yamakhemikhali nepulasitiki futhi kwabangela ukulungiswa kweketanga lokuphakelwa.
Umthelela Wezingxabano Zezohwebo
Izinqubomgomo zokuhweba zikaTrump zingase zicindezele ubudlelwano bezohwebo phakathi kwe-US ne-China. Iziphakamiso ezifana nentela ephelele engu-10% cishe kuzo zonke izinto ezingeniswa yi-US, intela efanayo engu-60% ezimpahleni zase-China, kanye neminye imisebenzi eqondiwe ingaba yingozi. Uma zisetshenziswa, lezi zinyathelo zingalimaza abathengi namabhizinisi ase-US, zicindezele umnotho, futhi zisongele imisebenzi. E-China, lezi zinqubomgomo zingaholela ekwehleni okukhulu kwenani lokuthumela impahla e-US.
Ukukhula Kwamandla kanye Nemakethe Yokungenisa
Naphezu kwezingxabano zokuhweba, amandla e-polyethylene aseShayina ayaqhubeka nokukhula. Phakathi kuka-2023-2024, ukungeniswa kwe-PE okugcwele eShayina kwanda uma kuqhathaniswa no-2022. Ngo-Okthoba 2024, iShayina yayisingenise cishe amathani ayizigidi eziyi-12 e-PE, kanti inani eliphelele lokungeniswa konyaka kulindeleke ukuthi lidlule amazinga ka-2023. Lo mkhuba ubangelwa ukubambezeleka kokuqaliswa kwamandla amasha asekhaya. Amandla okukhiqiza i-PE eShayina ngo-2024 alinganiselwa kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-31.8, okumelela ukwanda okuncane okungu-2% unyaka nonyaka.
Uma sibheke phambili ku-2025, iShayina kulindeleke ukuthi ibone ukwanda kwamandla okukhiqiza amasha e-PE, kanti ukukhula kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule u-19%. Abakhiqizi bagxile ezimakethe ezikhethekile, okuhlanganisa i-metallocene polyethylene (mPE), i-polyolefin elastomers (POE), kanye ne-polyethylene enesisindo sama-molecule esiphezulu (UHMWPE). Lokhu cishe kuzothuthukisa kakhulu ukuzimela kweShayina ku-PE futhi kuqinise ukuncintisana emakethe yokungenisa impahla.
Ithonya Lokunikezwa Kwempahla e-US
I-United States isalokhu ingenye yemithombo eyinhloko yokungenisa kwe-PE eShayina, ebalelwa cishe ku-18% wenani eliphelele lokungeniswa phakathi kukaJanuwari no-Okthoba 2024. Nakuba ukungeniswa kwe-PE okuphelele eShayina kwehla, isabelo sase-US sikhuphuke ngenxa yokukhula kwamandla okukhiqiza kanye nenzuzo yezindleko ezivela ezitshalweni ezisekelwe ku-ethane.
I-US isendaweni yokuncintisana kakhulu ku-curve yezindleko ze-PE zomhlaba wonke. Ngo-2025, amandla okukhiqiza e-US PE kulindeleke ukuthi afinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-25.5, kanye nesilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esihlanganisiwe (i-CAGR) esingu-4.8% kusukela ngo-2018 kuya ku-2025. Lokhu kwenza i-US ibe yinkampani enkulu yokuthumela i-PE emhlabeni jikelele, yandisa isabelo sayo semakethe eShayina.
Isiphetho
Ku-Q1 2025, njengoba izikhungo ezisanda kuqaliswa zikhulisa ukukhiqizwa futhi izitshalo ezazingasebenzi ngaphambili ziqala ukusebenza, ingcindezi yokuhlinzekwa kwe-PE kulindeleke ukuthi ikhuphuke, okuholela ekulinganisweni kwesidingo sokuhlinzekwa kanye nokwehla kwengcindezi emananini athile. Izingxabano zokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo kungenzeka ziphakame ngoJanuwari, okuholela ekucindezelweni kwenzuzo yokukhiqiza. NgoFebhuwari nangoMashi, ukuvalwa kwesikhashana kwezitshalo kulindeleke ukuthi kwande, okuhlinzeka impumuzo ethile ekucindezelweni kokuhlinzekwa. Kodwa-ke, imakethe iyonke izohlala isesimweni sokuhlinzekwa ngokweqile.
(Okuqukethwe nezithombe kuthathwe ku-inthanethi.)